Heller Predictions

A decision is expected in less than two hours, so I need to get on the record quickly. Here goes:

Judgment: Affirmed
Holding: RKBA is individual right, not collective.
Rule: Intermediate scrutiny; similar to the 1st Amendment's Time, Place, and Manner standard. The government must prove that the regulation serves an important/overriding/compelling interest not related to the suppression of gun ownership/use rights, and the regulation must be reasonably tailored to support that interest without unnecessarily harming the RKBA.
Application: DC ban does not pass scrutiny.

Of these, I think the Rule is the only outcome that's even in doubt. As long as there is an individual RKBA, the DC ban absolutely violates it. And the Supremes don't fail at reading comprehension enough not to find an individual RKBA.

For what it's worth, I hope we get strict scrutiny instead, but I don't think the Court will go there. Ordinarily SS would mean that 90%+ of the challenges against gun laws would win, which is simply not politically acceptable to the Court. And if they found a way to articulate the RKBA in such a way that many laws could pass SS, then SS itself would be harmed, and with it protections for other rights. So my bet is on intermediate scrutiny, which in all likelihood will only lead to the downfall of the most extreme gun control laws.