Deciphering the Russian Strategy

I think the strategic goal of the Russian invasion of Georgia is to undermine the effectiveness of the NATO alliance. I'll admit this is very thin at this opening juncture, but, the theory fits the facts on the ground and seems to make sense.

Let's start with the Russian's operational goals in Georgia. We know that despite two ceasefire agreements, the Russians continue to destroy military facilities and civilian infrastructure, and they have declared their intention to continue these "security operations" until Monday. The scope of these operations is clearly much, much greater than is necessary for the security of the people of S. Ossetia, in whose name the invasion was purportedly launched. They are trying to destroy as much of Georgia's military capability as they can, cripple their economy, and generally destroy as much as possible.

We also know that the Russians have moved irregular "volunteer" forces into Georgia, and that rebel militias in Abkhazia and S. Ossetia have been causing trouble both inside and outside of their respective provinces. This suggests that there will continue to be violence in Georgia long after the Russian army has left. The destruction of Georgia's military will give these irregulars a wide berth to cause trouble. Georgia is about to become another Iraq--a weak, discredited government will be fighting an insurgency in its borders. They're going to need help.

We've already committed to a humanitarian and reconstruction mission. We've said we don't expect this to be an operation involving military force, but this is naive. There have already least two instances of these irregulars interfering with humanitarian aid convoys. Unless we want another Mogadishu on our hands, we will need to support our humanitarian effort with military force. We can also fully expect attacks by irregulars against civilian infrastructure that Georgia is attempting to rebuild. Oh, and another thing---Russia has absolutely no intention of honoring its word to turn the rebel provinces over to international peacekeepers. They continued to sent in fresh reinforcements to both provinces after the first ceasefire agreement; not to mention they have pretty much announced their intentions in the media. We can expect these provinces to act as a safe haven for rebel forces to operate out of and retreat to--an area where the victorious "sweep and hold" counterinsurgency strategy cannot be implemented.

Russia has essentially handed the US a lose-lose situation. We are already stretched too thin to get involved in another insurgency. So we can either underestimate the commitment involved in Georgia and wear our military down to the point that we can't back up our obligations to NATO; or, we do nothing and allow Georgia to collapse, in which case NATO and Eastern Europe won't be looking to us for help either. If Western Europe decided to pull their weight in Georgia, this situation could be avoided, but the Russians are gambling on them being too timid to do so. It's a pretty safe bet given their track record.